Egyptian Army Holds The Key To Future

by Ayaz Ahmed Pirzada
February 9, 2011

http://www.weeklyblitz.net/1267/egyptian-army-holds-the-key-to-future

Hundreds of thousands of protesters marched in Cairo and Alexandria on Tuesday calling for President Hosni Mubarak to quit on the eighth day of anger. Despite blocking of roads and suspension of all kind of transport a sea of humanity gathered. The people have dismissed President Mubarak's latest announcement that he would not contest the next elections. It is not something new because instead of Mubarak, his son Gamal Mubarak was to be fielded as a presidential candidate in the polls in September next. So the country continues to be in grip of worst turmoil in its history. The uprising is fast reaching profound chaos and uncertainty .The only certainty out of the revolt is the numbering of days of President Mubarak .It is now only a matter of time when the army arranges safe passage for him to seek asylum abroad. As a first step to abdicate from power, his family has already gone to London. No one knows as to what would be Mubarak's ultimate choice for temporary or permanent abode. He may not be lucky like Tunisian ousted President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to stay in Saudi Arabia which has long been proving shelter to discarded Muslim leaders. In Mubarak's case the house of Saud would weigh carefully the mood and reaction of the people of Egypt who have lot of reverence and respect for the holy land. As for the United States dismissed and ousted leaders even if they were its very close friends were bluntly denied asylum. One such example is that of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi Aryamehr who was installed as Shah and King of Iran by the west and who after the Islamic revolution was politely denied stay in the US. The US administration, a close friend of Mubarak for 30 years would not like to be criticized and hated by the Egyptians by allowing him and his family to stay in America. The USA does not want to be on wrong side as it has a lot of stake in stable Egypt. A special American envoy has reached Cairo to convey a message of President Obama. Mubarak's announcement not to contest next presidential election probably came after receiving the American message.

In the middle of current uprising former head of IAEA, Mohammed ElBaradei, has been rushed by his friends to Cairo from Geneva to address agitators. He is receiving high key projection in the US media as a consensus figure for any future scenario . Mohamed ElBaradei announced in Cairo that he had been delegated by opposition groups to discuss the formation of a national unity government and that he would "be in touch soon with the army,".The Akhwanul Muslimeen (Muslim Brotherhood), the largest and probably most disciplined opposition party is extending support to secular opposition figure, Mohamed ElBaradei, to negotiate on behalf of the forces seeking the fall of President Hosni Mubarak.

According to NYT(FEB 1,2011) Mr. ElBaradei, 68, had a fractious relationship with the Bush administration, one so hostile that Bush officials tried to get him removed from his post at the atomic watchdog agency. But as Egypt's powerful Muslim Brotherhood and the secular opposition on the streets of Cairo have increasingly coalesced around Mr. ElBaradei to negotiate on their behalf, the Obama administration is scrambling to figure out whether he is someone with whom the United States can deal." United states has big stake in the region .Any chance of Islamic Brotherhood coming into main stream politics would most likely fold the American- Israeli –Egyptian detente by which the Jewish state received recognition by a Muslim country . Edward P. Djerejian, a former American ambassador to Israel and Syria. "If the '79 agreement goes asunder, everything falls apart. Everything falls apart." "The strategic importance of Egypt, the experts said, lies in its role as the cornerstone of American policy in the Middle East. The United States could not have sustained the wars it fought in Iraq without logistical support from Egypt's government. Forty percent of world oil passes through the Suez Canal and almost entire supply of oil to Europe also comes through this Canal. The main concern is that if the situation remains unstable and there occurs disruption in supply of oil, the prices would rise with multiplier effect on everything.

The role of the half a million strong Egyptian army would be crucial to dilute the diabolical situation. The Egyptian Army chief of staff, Gen Sami Enan was in the United States when people were thronging into streets to demand ouster of their president. He had to cut short his visit when the riots took a dangerous turn and the demonstrators were not ready to accept anything short of Hosni Mubarak's resignation. Although according to the UN more than 300 protestors have so far been killed in clashes with police since protests began on January 25, demanding that Mubarak quit and calling for democracy, jobs and an end to corruption and human rights abuses . The army does not have any role in it. So far the presence of the army in the streets looks as friendly with soldiers shaking hands with demonstrators who were seen riding on tank barrels .The army has refused to act against the agitators but surely it holds the key to future political dispensation in this troubled country. But the problem is that unlike Pakistan army the Egyptian army has no experience of handling civil administration. In Pakistan the army has forty years experience of ruling the country. There is a well laid out drill and whenever army decides to intervene the required apparatus is in place for implementation. Another difficulty the Egyptian army faces is to make a choice - to stay loyal to their commander- in –chief, the president or to their institution? The choices it makes in the coming days will not only help determine the military's future, but the fate of the country as well." President Mubarak is struggling to hold on power and fast running out of options. His move to appoint Omar Suleiman as vice president and , Ahmed Shafiq, as new prime minister left no salutary effect in the streets where protesters are demanding president's removal. The appointment of the two who have military background looked like a strategic move by President Mubarak not only to please the army but also as a safety valve for any possible safe exit. Abdication from power at this point of time is logical choice Mubarak must make before it is too late. History is replete with examples when even closet friends and institutions did not rescue the beleaguered leaders. He must listen to President Obama who publically called on Feb 1,2011 for bringing orderly and peaceful transition in this great country .

Ayaz Ahmed Pirzada is a Columnist, Analyst and Former Diplomat.

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