You and the Islamic Rebellions

There are four possible outcomes for the Islamic rebellions we see in Algeria, Tunisia, Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and elsewhere. The first is that they fizzle out and the status quo returns - this probably will not happen in every rebellion, but very well may in some. The second, is that they go on, creating wider conflagrations, drawing in outside nations and their weapons. The third is that something equal to, or more sinister than, the current governments come into the power vacuum via democracy or junta. And the fourth option, is what all right-minded people hope for – true democratic, mostly secular nations arise and bring a new era of individual freedom for all people, religious minorities and women included, a sense of national nobility, and an economic surge. Sadly, it is by a brodingnagian margin that the fourth of these shall not occur, and even if it does, it shall not entirely end the threat to us - at least initially.

Right now is a dangerous time to be part of Western civilization. Just a few days ago in fact, the National Security Agency declared the possibility of attack on the USA is at "its most heightened state" since September 11th, 2001. Only fools wonder why. The Barbary rebellions are beginning to generate angst concerning a potential failure, there is already rebellion fatigue in some of the masses, and a growing sense that the people are going to have to go it alone without aide from powerful potentates- at least for the time being. They must feel that this is, to others outside their states, a virtual revolt, and that people are watching them risk their lives to transplant their despotic unmoved movers as they would watch a film - involved but not attached. Tensions can go little higher – the people, like a line taunt, shall take little to snap: the scissor need not even cut, but merely touch the line and things shall fall apart. And when they fall apart, the Muslim Street shall turn its gaze to the West - as it always does when there is failure and they need someone to blame.

It does not matter which of the four fates I mentioned come to pass, none bode well for those of the Occident:

If the status quo returns, the temporarily "ousted" leaders and government officials shall return and will make people swear loyalty oaths, and then the returned kings will kill off the bellwethers of the revolt, and destroy the writings and technology used to advance the revolts. Disgruntled souls will declare that the hypocritical United States and Europe did not support them or save them from this, though the superpowers ostensibly pushed for their rebellious activity. In this case, we will have motivated enemies.

If a larger war breaks out in the region between dictator supporters, the noble, anti-government secularists, and the Islamic fundamentalists – there will be losers in this fight who will again look to the West as a reason for their defeat. That is, the complaints will be that not enough materiel was provided, nor enough vocal bolstering for the movement, or conversely, that we interfered too much, etc. It is a loss all the way around. We will have motivated enemies in this case.

If a theocracy appears out of this abyss then not only will we have to fear terrorism carried out behind the government's back, but terrorism will exist in front of the government's chest and eyes, and carried out via their hands, or should I say, arms. To harm the West will be one of their raison d'etres – and we will have motivated enemies in this case.

Lastly, if the Barbary states, and some of the Middle East states, become shining examples of democracy, and in Egypt, for instance, Copts and Sunnis love each other, and freedom is granted in speech, religion and so forth – do not expect any thanks for the influence of Western values as a cause of this. Indeed, if democracy and freedom comes – it will not come to all, but only to some. It will take generations of these new non-Muslim-Muslim nations to kill off or let die the radical Islamic terrorists among them. In the mean time - and it will be a mean time - it shall be clear to Islamic extremists that they are losing – that the people of the Barbary and Middle East have seen their choices and wish to be more like us than like them, the fundamentalists. They will, as they go down, attempt to take as many souls as they can with them. Yes, even in this desired case, we will have enemies for quite some time.

You see, for the doyens of al-Qaeda and other Islamic terrorist groups, American and European action or inaction; its support of the rebellions of or rebuffs of them, will, in either case, provide plenty of fodder to incite violence. Few understand this, and like dopes, assume that the grievances bin-Laden-types spout are legitimate, and if only we "listen to them" they would cease their blood lust. But to anyone who has ever known or been a criminal, for instance, eventually crime is committed just for the thrill of it. What would a warlord would be without war? Certainly not a lord.

The bin-Laden types can take anything we in the West do or do not do, add sugar to it and flavor it to convince young Muslim men to kill the likes of you and your family at airports, train stations, on buses and subways, at sporting events, movie theaters, shows, concerts, celebrations, parades, crusies, flights, assemblies, rallies, shopping malls, or by tainting the water and food supplies, or by creating dirty bombs, etc.. How long before the first IED is let off state side?

In any scenario that shall manifest, killers will find a reason to kill - put your silver on that. And what is more: all the apologies espousing these ad hoc reasons for violence are online, it need not be a North African or Middle East national: somewhere in the United States and/or EU, I guarantee, a young, socially challenged Muslim youth has not had to enter Mosque to receive impetus to kill – he insouciantly logged on to the web and sermonized himself. These rebellions are going to create more killers. Verily, no need for a madrassa when then laptop is near at hand.

Listen, to reiterate: though it would appear that those who want to attack us seemingly already have totally convinced themselves to do so, a little bit of democracy and freedom speak in North Africa and the Middle East, sounds to terrorists like "their" people are, or are becoming, puppets of the Western world – this gives our foes even more juice, even more venomous grit. And to those who were on the edge, not quite killers yet, they shall be pushed off by the threat of freedom spreading. These developments will partly be proof as well as (to some) an unwanted affirmation that the Bush Doctrine was partly right: that they do hate us for our love of freedom.

So in closing, as you travel to Western hotspots in foreign lands, or stride down the sidewalks of our great metropolises in the Western world, or go to public gatherings – among you, I fear, are people who wish to kill you now more than ever, more than yesterday, more than an hour ago. No matter what happens in the current rebellions, it augurs quite poorly for us. One thing you can count on with many who are of Muslim nations, which suffer at once from narcissism and a sense of victimhood, is that they will not, save in the glibbest of fashions, look at themselves as the source of their problems or failures. Inner guilt projected outward can lead to terrorism and conflict – this is not fear-mongering, it is called thinking. Try it – but be warned, sometimes it leads one down a path that offers little light.

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You and the Islamic Rebellions

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