Mumbai Mayhem and Indian Nukes

The mayhem in Mumbai has been condemned all over the globe and Pakistan has offered all possible cooperation to India to help probe the ghastly incident. Brutal killing of innocent people and the whole episode of carnage has raised more questions than answers. It is of utmost importance to know; who were these eleven terrorists, how they reached Mumbai, who provided them local logistics, from where they got guns and explosives, who provided them transport and above all what was their objective. Indian security agencies say that the perpetrators came to Mumbai from Karachi by sea in some kind of a trawler. It is mind boggling that how these could invisible eleven could came from Karachi to Mumbai after crossing 21 Indian radars in a journey of 50 hours. The Indian radars can monitor activity of any vassal leaving far beyond Karachi - as far as Gawadar. Mumbai coastline is intensely monitored twenty four hours by high tech helicopters, hovercrafts, speed boats and vassals equipped with latest surveillance electronic gadgets. Every boat and ship entering Indian coastline is scanned. Even a small fishing boat crossing littoral waters is intercepted in minutes .It is therefore impossible that any trawler could sneak into India. American intelligence claims to have informed Indian authorities in October last about possibility of attack from sea.

But Indian Naval Chief Misra has said denied that any actionable intelligence was provided to them .The whole story is so confused and messed up that no body knows what exactly happened between November 26 and 28.But one thing is sure that it was total failure of Indian security agencies as the eleven meticulously executed their plan in a city of 20 million .They virtually took hostage the whole city for three days .Like precision guided missiles they reached the targets and took over heavily guarded 5-star hotels, dodging the security system of the entire city of Mumbai and the internal security system of the hotels and the Jewish center .

It is a mystery how could the Indian government ignore the warnings contained in a 2007 report to Parliament that the country's shores were poorly protected . Why weren't the police and the army better prepared to respond? Sharpshooters outside the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower Hotel did not have telescopic sights, to get a shot for fear of killing hostages rather than the terrorists. Less than efficient performance of the Indian security apparatus is evident from the fact that it took them72 hours to clean the sites and eliminate the terrorists and capturing one alive to say anything the captors want. If traditional third degree methods of torture are exercised, the captive would admit every thing Indians want.

The Indian media declared war on Pakistan within minutes of the carnage. Comments like bomb Pakistan and imaginary graphics demonizing its neighbor were all over the electronic media with fanfare .This unfortunate incident should be used both by India and Pakistan to work closely for stamping out terrorism from the region and live in peace. Blame game and intense propaganda against Pakistan would lead nowhere but to military confrontation which the two countries already had three in sixty years. India is reported to planning a quick military strike at some of the areas in Pakistan they suspect to be training camps .No body in right frame of mind should entertain the idea of attack any where in Pakistan. It would not be like US drones intruding into tribal areas and going back unchallenged. Pakistani leadership says that any attack from India would be met with matching response from Pakistan .In that scenario there would be every possibility of eruption of full scale war between two nuclear neighbors decimating everything in the sub-continent. There would be no winner except the terrorists. A small victory they have already achieved is apparent cancellation of Indian cricket team's visit to Pakistan. Let the tour take place to defeat the terrorists. Cricket play will help assuage level of anger and mistrust The horrific consequences of military conflict can be avoided if India positively responds to Pakistan's offer of full cooperation in tracking down the perpetrators of Mumbai blasts .Rising above the usual blame game, serious efforts have to be made for finding the culprits who have almost brought the two countries on the brink of war.

President Zardari has told the US Secretary of State Condoleezza. Rice that India should stop finger-pointing against Pakistan and positively respond to offer of cooperation. Zardari says that there is no concrete evidence of Pakistani involvement in the attacks, and American officials too have not established a direct link to Pakistan. But pressure started building on Pakistan to confront the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which Indian and American officials say carried out the Mumbai attacks. It means that there is no divergence of views between India and the Unites States that the perpetrators were non- state elements in Pakistan and should be punished as such. .Otherwise, according to Indian External Affaires Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the next action will depend on response from Pakistan about handing it over 20 suspects. India has said that all options are on table and military action against Pakistan is not ruled out. In a tactical move, Indian authorities have included in the list of 20, some people wanted by the USA to make a common cause between two strategic partners. Incidentally the list of 20 people is not new. It is the same which India presented in 1993 and 2002 .India would continue to press for its demand and Pakistan would not hand over any one till evidence beyond any reasonable doubt of involvement of any Pakistani is presented to it. The stand off is likely to continue between two old rivals. Meanwhile important world capitals are ceased with hectic diplomatic activity to defuse the potential explosive situation in the sub-continent. In the face of belligerent posture adopted by Indian leaders and the media, the Pakistani government is drawing criticism at home for adopting a defensive position. The government of President Zardari is weak due to a variety domestic reason but the good thing it has achieved is complete unity in the country in facing the situation arising out of Mumbai attacks and facing any challenge to country's integrity. The last time such show of full support to the government and the army was in 1965 when India and Pakistan fought 17 days war. Any strategic or war advantage is not easy to be achieved against a country where its people are united against foreign aggressive designs.

There has been a persistent propaganda that Pakistani nukes are not safe and one day might get into hands of terrorists ,But what happened in Mumbai onNov26-28 has raised concerns about security of Indian nuclear assets. After the Mumbai carnage and failure of intelligence agencies several questions are being raised about the security of Indian nuclear weapons. B Raman, retired additional secretary, cabinet division who also worked in RAW (Indian intelligence) has said, "I could not sleep the whole of last night. One question which kept bothering me again and again was: how safe are our nuclear establishments and material? Till now, we were greeting with glee Pakistan's incompetence in dealing with terrorism. We can no longer do so. We have become as clueless as Pakistan.' Mumbai like attacks at the strategic sites of Indian nukes could make vulnerable the safety of nuclear arsenal .Poor security arrangements in a city like Mumbai of 20 million would surely ask trouble should such unfortunate incident occur again in India.

Ayaz Ahmed Pirzada is a former diplomat and columnist

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Mumbai Mayhem and Indian Nukes

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