War clouds hovering over South Asia

Mumbai attacks pushed the peace process between India and Pakistan on back seat. Both the neighbors asked their people not to visit the other side of the border. Even cricket series was cancelled by Indian Cricket Board. Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) chopped down at the lowest level. Young media played major role in creating 'war hype' which later on taken by the immature leaders without realizing the real damage -- human or material -- of a nuclear war. Humanity was at the mercy of so-called representatives of the people who had been stocking nuclear assets at the expense of development.

Peaceful solution to defuse the tension seemed to be a single hope for the unprivileged of South Asia. Escalation may take both the countries on brink of collapse as these nations are not as responsible as the US and Soviet Union were at the height of the Cold War. Nuclear factor makes the situation more dreadful.

An American intelligence report said a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan could kill up to 12 million people and injure seven million. The US assessment said a limited nuclear exchange would have cataclysmic results, overwhelming hospitals across Asia and the Middle East and requiring vast foreign assistance, particularly from America, which would be forced to go in and clean up the radioactive mess.

Millions more people would die of starvation, disease and radiation. Most of the bombs would explode on the ground, spreading radioactive debris over a large area and destroying agriculture for years.

There are both opponents and proponents of having nuclear assets in Pakistan and India. First, those who think nuclear assets are vital for the security of their country. They believe nuclear bombs are the saviors against any foreign aggression.

In Pakistan, they are proud to have nuclear bombs becoming a single Muslim nuclear nation in the world. They see these assets as a tool of 'balance of power' in the subcontinent. They back up the maxim of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who promised, "If India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own." Their hero is Dr AQ Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

On the other hand, critics view expenditure on nukes as wasteful expenditure. They often argue that expenditure on defense is incurred at the expense of development. They see nuclear arsenals as killers of development projects. They say 'nukes are not saving us', but 'we are their saviors', and 'we are busy in keeping guard on nuclear assets from any possible theft by the militants and foreign powers'.

They believe poverty, inflation, load-shedding, clothing, shelter, safe drinking water, hunger, illiteracy and unemployment are the real issues which should be addressed by the leaders in utmost urgency.

According to UNICEF, 26,500-30,000 children die each day due to poverty. And they "die quietly in some of the poorest villages on earth, far removed from the scrutiny and the conscience of the world. Being meek and weak in life makes these dying multitudes even more invisible in death."

Around 27-28 percent of all children in developing countries are estimated to be underweight or stunted. The two regions that account for the bulk of the deficit are South Asia and sub-Saharan-Africa.

According to the new World Bank's estimates on poverty based on 2005 data, India has 456 million people, 41.6pc of its population, living below the new international poverty line of $1.25 (PPP) per day. The World Bank further estimates that 33pc of the global poor now reside in India.

Similarly, according to estimates by international NGO's, 74pc of Pakistan's population, or 122 million people, live under $2 a day, and some 15pc, or 30 million people live under $1 a day. Wealth distribution in Pakistan is highly uneven, with 10pc of the population earning 27.6pc of income. According to the United Nations Human Development Report, Pakistan's human development indicators, especially those for women, fall significantly below those of countries with comparable levels of per-capita income. At least 40pc of the population has no access to safe drinking water, and 50pc has no access to sanitation. Pakistan also has a higher infant mortality rate (88 per 1,000) than the South Asian average (83 per 1,000).

Facing a lot of problems by the poor, both the nations are stick to increasing their defense budget year by year.

As for fiscal year 2008-09, India's defense allocation has increased by 10 per cent over the previous year's allocation of Rupees. 96, 000 CRORES, and by little over 14 per cent compared to last year's revised allocation of Rupees. 92,500 cores. In the last five years, the defense budget has increased by nearly 37 per cent from Rupees. 77,000 CRORES in 2004-05, which represents over 8 per cent growth per annum. At the same time, Pakistan's defense spending for the year 2008-2009 is set at Rs 302.5 billion ($4.5bn), an increase of 7pc. But the development budget of both the countries remains low with compared to other developing countries.

Both the nations should avoid any escalation. Clouds of a nuclear war must be averted. The tension must be defused by resuming the composite dialogue process. Both the nations must address the problems of the poor by increasing development budget.

The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at: rahil.yasin@gmail.com

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War clouds hovering over South Asia

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