Destiny of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi

by Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury
August 22, 2011

http://www.weeklyblitz.net/1679/destiny-of-libyan-leader-muammar-gaddafi

According to international news sources, Libyan rebels are reportedly capturing key-points in Tripoli. Though Muammar al Gaddafi's fall is well speculated by many since months, it is not yet clear if the fall is imminent as according to news agencies, Libyan rebel forces, are ill-equipped to fight their way into a city the size of Tripoli, may look to locally brokered deals or a burgeoning popular uprising to break the will of Muammar Gaddafi's forces. Most importantly, if Gaddafi falls, power goes to the hands of rebels, who basically are Islamists and were always rejecting Gaddafi's autocracy as well as secularist policies.

If Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi retains the loyalty of large numbers of security forces in the capital, the ragtag opposition forces could struggle and there would be little NATO air strikes could do without risking civilians. Gauging the loyalty of Tripoli's population is far from easy. Gaddafi loyalists have put on many marches and demonstrations of loyalty in recent months, but hundreds if not thousands of his opponents also took to the streets in the early stages of the uprising before they were cowed. The rebels naturally hope, security forces will melt away and it will be easy for them to capture Tripoli.

Some analysts say Gaddafi might already have fled, perhaps to his hometown of Sirte or a desert base further south. The long speeches at boisterous public meetings have given way to broadcast addresses delivered on scratchy telephone lines. But others say the nascent uprising reported in Tripoli on August 20, 2011 night might have come too soon, with opposition forces still too far away to help. Despite rhetoric of taking Tripoli and ending the war in hours or days, some analysts suspect it is more likely the rebels will cement their stranglehold on the city and then see how events play out.

It is also speculated by the rebels that, many of the key-figures in Gaddafi's government might have already fled to countries in Africa such as Niger, Mali and Chad where they had good contacts. Rebels also believe that, Gaddafi is bound to have some people who will put up a symbolic fight. But these are mostly thugs and there is no organized force left of any size to check the rebels. If the rebels are wrong and significant Gaddafi forces remain, strategists say they could be in serious trouble. Urban warfare is notoriously challenging and bloody, giving a clear advantage to the defender, while some doubt the opposition have sufficient supply lines to sustain an offensive.

It is important to watch as to how Muammar Gaddafi plays the card. He could either opt for going into exile or copy the last minute strategies of Saddam Hussain. Saddam evaded U.S. forces for months following the 2003 fall of Baghdad before they eventually tracked him down - although most analysts believe such a scheme would prove tougher in Libya because of its more disparate geography. Even if opposition forces were able to take much of Tripoli relatively easily and bloodlessly, they might still struggle to take down the final remnants of the regime.

Then, the situation could resemble that seen earlier this year in Ivory Coast, where opposition fighters loyal to Alassane Ouattara took much of the capital Abidjan but seemed unable to capture incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo.

It took the actions of French helicopter gunships and troops already based in the country to eventually breach his compound and bunker, allowing his capture by local forces. The International Criminal Court in The Hague indicted Gaddafi, his eldest son and intelligent chief for crimes committed during their initial crackdown. That might yet prompt foreign military action to help the rebels capture him.

According to latest information confirmed by senior government official in Tunisia, Libya's former number two figure in the government, Abdes-Salem Jalloud left the country to Italy on a Maltese plane through Tunisia. This news has also been confirmed by several news agencies, including Aljazeera TV. Meanwhile, Italian minister Ignazio La Russa has also confirmed that Abdes-Salam Jalloud has arrived in his country. But the minister declined to give further details on the whereabouts of the ex top aide of Gaddafi.

What happens in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi is a big question, as the rebel forces, which is now fighting to oust the dictator are enjoying support and patronization of Islamists and Jihadists around the world. Many political analysts even fear, capture of power in Tripoli by Islamist forces, thus transforming so-far secularist Libya into another Taliban prototype nation.

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