Complications centering Indian poll and politics

As the Indian election is getting closer, there is growing questions in the minds of the people, as to who will lead the largest democracy in the world for next several years. Whether fanatic Bharatiya Janata Party or secularist Congress party?

Meanwhile, following the shoe flung by journalist Jarnail Singh at home minister P. Chidambaram revived the ghosts of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, Jagdish Tytler's goose was cooked. Two days later, on April 9, Tytler, who had been given a Congress ticket for North East Delhi, called a press conference and said he was pulling out. He had little choice, for the majority view in the Congress was in favor of "persuading" Tytler—one of the big names linked to the riots—to quit. The other Congress leader charged in the riots, Sajjan Kumar, has also withdrawn his candidature from the Delhi South constituency. The episode had posed an awkward problem for the ruling party. As a senior minister put it, "It embarrassed all of us and revived memories of the darkest chapter after Indira Gandhi's assassination, when Congress leaders and workers indulged in the kind of violence we keep accusing the BJP of." For every Maya Kodnani—the minister in the Narendra Modi government in Gujarat who recently had to quit because of the 2002 anti-Muslim riots charges against her—there has been in the Congress a Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar [another accused in the 1984 riots who has been given the ticket from South Delhi]. Now, the Congress will certainly try to take a moral position on having made Tytler and Sajjan Kumar withdraw.

The party will now raise the issue of the BJP fielding candidates like Manoj Pradhan, the man involved in the Kandhamal communal violence.

There had been hard calculation at work. Once the shoe was thrown, there was the immediate question of the electoral impact in Punjab. Jarnail Singh's much-televised act, giving vent to the pent-up frustration of Sikhs at not getting justice for the 3,000-odd victims of the 1984 riots, catalyzed the scene. But 25 years is a long time in the consciousness of a people. When the Congress gave out tickets to Tytler and Sajjan last month, it had presumed that the majority of Sikhs had by now become indifferent to the issue.

Tytler had been boasting of an impending clean chit to him from the CBI, which was to submit its report to a Delhi court after recording the fresh statements of two witnesses. That he was privy to the CBI's intentions became evident on April 2, when the CBI sought closure of the case against Tytler on the ground that the statements of the witnesses were inconsistent and unreliable. Congress leaders in Punjab were embarrassed and found themselves having little to say when asked about the developments. This also raised suspicions of the CBI being "fixed" by the Congress to help an influential leader, just as the BJP had done with the Ayodhya cases when it was in power.

But this was election season. And even in normal times it is unlikely that an issue such as this would have gone unnoticed. The Shiromani Akali Dal [SAD] seized on the emotive issue that had fallen into its lap. The BJP, in power with the Akalis in Punjab, issued statements on it every day. Protest demonstrations were organized in many parts of Punjab. A gherao [blockade] of Sonia Gandhi's residence in Delhi was also planned. Had the shoe tilted the electoral balance in Punjab in favor of the beleaguered SAD camp? Not really. Most political observers believe the Congress fortunes are on the rise in Punjab and the Tytler episode was only a small hiccup. And now that the man has pulled out of the fray, the Congress may even eke out some goodwill. Many say that identity politics has ceased to be an issue in Punjab for some years now and the shoe and Tytler will remain just a talking point for a few days.

In India, by now, the Congress had been in power a full 20 years. It could no longer cash in so easily on the legacy of the independence struggle. Khadi, once the livery of freedom, now denoted opportunism, and even corruption. Hence that slogan, which juxtaposed the devious ways of the ruling party with the austerity [some would say Puritanism] of the Jana Sangh. This party had a particular appeal in north India, where its call to Hindu pride evoked resonance among Partition refugees and those brought up on myths of resistance to Muslim rule. Elsewhere in India, the challenge to the ruling party came from different quarters. No doubt, the slogans being shouted in Coimbatore and Madurai chastised the Congress for promoting Hindi and seeking to eliminate Tamil. Meanwhile, in Kerala and West Bengal, the Congress was being represented as the party of the propertied and the moneybags.

Even as that loose-limbed Frontiersman cycled around my hometown, inveighing against the Congress, a nation-wide survey was being conducted to assess the likely outcome of the 1967 general elections.

Overseeing the study was E.P.W. da Costa of the Indian Institute of Public Opinion, who was [so to say] the Yogendra Yadav of his day. The survey found that the Congress had "lost a great deal of its charisma"; it would still retain power at the Centre, albeit with a greatly reduced majority. However, it would lose power in many states. Thus the elections of 1967 would signal "the disintegration of the monolithic exercise of power by the Congress party".

The predictions were vindicated by events. In that general election, the fourth since Independence, the Congress won 54.5 per cent of the seats in the Lok Sabha—down from more than 70 per cent. Many established leaders lost their seats, such as Bombay strongman S.K. Patil, who was defeated by the then mostly obscure trade union leader George Fernandes. The Congress's losses were far greater in the provinces. It won a mere 48.5 per cent of the seats in state assemblies, where its previous tally had always been in excess of 60 per cent. It lost power in Madras to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, in Kerala to the Communists, in West Bengal to an alliance of Communists and Congress defectors, in Orissa to an alliance of Swatantra and Congress defectors. It also failed to establish governments in many states in northern India, where loose coalitions of Jana Sanghis, socialists, and breakaway Congressmen came to form governments.

In retrospect, the polls of 1967 marked a decisive turning point in the history of electoral democracy in India. The Congress was now no longer hegemonic at the Centre; and deeply vulnerable in the states. At the same time, there was no clear national alternative to the party of the freedom struggle.

The forthcoming election in India is important for a number of reasons. This is for the first time; a few youngsters from Nehru Dynasty are contesting, while Varun Gandhi, a candidate of Bharatiya Janata Party is already at the focal point of media for his hate speech against Muslims. Moreover, it will be also important to see if the Indian voters saw the policies of Dr. Manmohan Singh in a positive manner as well if they will show honor to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi for her charismatic leadership as well as unique example of stepping out of power, which is rare in today's world.

No one possibly will debate on a point that during the present tenure of Congress, India not only gained further to its high-speed growth of economy, but it also very successfully proved to be one of the mightiest competitors in high-tech as well as software industry. Indians have continued to increase their growing influence and presence in world's IT sector. Above all, the team of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and Dr. Singh has very successfully placed India in an important position as a regional super power as well as an important player in various global issues. No doubt, the Indian voters will certainly put focus on these points while stamping the ballot.

Some people continue to say that a strong and stable India is a threat for its small neighbors, as this large nation in South Asia never cared about its small neighbors. Rather, there is always a kind of tension prevailing between India and other small nations in South Asia. Hopefully, the next government in New Delhi will take this matter into their active consideration and take several steps in gaining confidence of the South Asian neighbors, so that in the next decade, the entire region can emerge as an excellent example of progress, prosperity and peace in the world. Moreover, being a secular country, India should always put importance on ensuring equal treatment to people of all religious beliefs as well check the growth of religious fanatics, which is a must for prosperous and integrated India.

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Complications centering Indian poll and politics

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