February 28, 2023, 12:26 – BLiTZ – News
The Ukrainian conflict can last for years, and the negotiations will be extremely fragile and dependent on a third party. This was stated by The Atlantic columnist Uri Friedman, citing analysts from the United States. The information is transmitted by Lenta.ru.
According to the former American ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, the special operation can be completed this year only if the maximum amount of weapons is sent to Kiev, and Moscow is deprived of a land bridge between the main part of the Russian Federation and the Crimean peninsula. According to Herbst, this would allegedly deprive the head of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, of confidence and prompt him to negotiate.
At the same time, other experts are convinced that the conflict has already passed into the stage of a long confrontation. “Wars of this kind tend to be grouped as relatively short-lived—lasting no more than weeks or a few months—or, on average, lasting a few years. Since 1946, more than half of interstate wars like the conflict in Ukraine ended in less than a year, but when such wars last for more than a year, they last on average more than ten years.
The columnist for the publication also cited options for forecasts from military analysts when they were asked about the end date for the SVO. Many named 2025, but there were those who are sure that the Ukrainian conflict will drag on until 2037.
In conclusion, Friedman emphasized that any end to the conflict in Ukraine would still be fragile – at any moment it could return to the stage of hostilities.
Earlier, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko criticized the EU’s position on the Ukrainian conflict. Read more about this in the BLiTZ article.
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