Rajdev Pandey, Patna. In Bihar, in the last three decades, the average July rainfall has decreased by 112 mm. Between 1981 and the 1990s, Bihar recorded an average rainfall of 426.27 mm every year in July. In comparison, in the next three decades 1991-2000, 2001-2010 and 2011-2020 decades (30 years), an average of 314.11 mm of rain per decade has been recorded.
This is a special trend of climate change
According to experts, the failure of monsoon in July is badly affecting the entire pattern of Kharif. It is being considered as a special trend of climate change. If we look at the figures of the first three years of the current decade 2021-2030, on an average, there has been an unprecedented decrease in July rainfall in the first three years of the current decade by 200 mm. 258.3 in July 2021, 134.7 in July 2022 and only 112.7 mm of rain has been recorded in July 2023 so far. This is a dangerous trend of July rains.
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July rain trend changed permanently
At present, during the last four decades, the trend of July rains in Bihar has changed permanently. It can be understood in this way – in the decade from 1981 to 90, an average of 426.27 mm of rain was recorded every year, in the decade of 1991 to 2000, 293, in the decade of 2001-2010, an average of 332.81 and in the decade of 2011-20, only 316 mm of rain was recorded.
Special facts related to July rains in Bihar
Before the year 1981, Bihar used to receive significant rainfall of 500 mm or more in July with a gap of two-three years. in the last 26 years
500 mm or more rainfall has not been recorded even once. In the year 1981, 580.1 and in 2007, 549.4 mm of rain was recorded.
In the decade of 1981 to 1990, three times between 400 and 500 mm in July, twice between 1991 and 2000, once between 2001 and 2010 and twice between 2011 and 2020 this much rainfall has been recorded.
Last year in 2022, the monsoon was inactive for 19 days in July. This happened for the first time in the history of Bihar’s monsoon in 100 years.
Monsoon has been inactive or weak for eight days this year, this phase is still going on. In this way, climate change can be understood by the changing trend of July rains.
Low pressure area is not being formed in East India
One of the main reasons for less rain in the month of July is the absence of low pressure area in eastern India. Due to this, the moisture coming from the east is not able to reach widely in the region of Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. This is the reason that the powerful system of monsoon is not being activated. Whatever rain is falling is influenced by the local weather conditions. Because the temperature remains high, there are chances of getting a cold.
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deleterious effect on the economy
The decreasing trend of July rains is going to prove fatal for the agricultural economy of Bihar. If we look at it in the context of paddy, then in the month of July, calla bursts on the traditional paddy crop. In other words, the hair starts coming out in the paddy. Less rain will have the opposite effect on it. Production will have more or less the same effect on other crops. If paddy is planted which ripens in less time, then its economic cost will increase. The most important thing is that the Rabi crop will also be late. The second worst effect will be on the quality of mangoes, berries and other fruits. Because this is the main time for their ripening.
There are many reasons for the weak monsoon in July
IMD Patna’s senior meteorologist Anand Shankar said that there is definitely a trend of decreasing rainfall in July. In view of this, we will need a change in our agriculture pattern. There are many reasons for the weakening of the monsoon in July. Serious studies are being done in this direction. Broadly speaking, like last year, this year in July, the system required for monsoon rains is not able to form.
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