Orientalist estimated the likelihood of China’s invasion of Taiwan

China is in favor of a peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue, although it reserves the right to resolve the conflict in any way it sees fit. This was reported to Izvestiya on February 27 by Vladimir Portyakov, chief researcher at the Center for Political Research and Development Forecasts at the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia.

According to him, Beijing has repeatedly stressed that the principle “today is Ukraine, tomorrow is Taiwan”, which is being pedaled in the West, has nothing to do with reality.

“China is against any linkage of the situation in Taiwan to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but this does not suit the West, and especially the United States, and they simply continue to pretend that there is such a link, and the events in Ukraine directly affect the position of the Chinese leadership on Taiwan. And in every possible way this topic is being awakened, ”he said.

Portyakov noted that Beijing continues to uphold its principled line: Taiwan is an integral part of China.

“China is for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue in the foreseeable future, although it reserves the right to resolve this issue as it sees fit. Over the past 20 years, there have been a lot of “timings” for China’s attack on Taiwan: for example, it was argued that Beijing would “completely iron” liberate Taiwan in 2011, by the centenary of the Xinhai Revolution, ”the expert explained.

As the expert said, now Beijing is in the first place to solve completely different tasks – to overcome the negative consequences that are caused by US sanctions and restrictions, including restrictions on the sale of chips to China, as well as to overcome the negative consequences in the economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

“And the Taiwan agenda is completely artificially imposed on China – then by a trip [спикера палаты представителей конгресса США Нэнси] Pelosi, either with plans for a visit to the island of her successor, or with stuffing about the fact that China is selling or is going to sell offensive weapons to Russia, which has never been discussed at all, and is not going on, ”said Portyakov.

He added that when considering US-Chinese relations, both on a specific occasion and in a broader context, one should see that there is an increasingly powerful tendency in them to go to open provocations and create artificial crisis disputes and additional difficulties.

February 25 Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns in an interview CBS said U.S. intelligence shows that Chinese President Xi Jinping, while instructing his military to be ready to invade Taiwan, doubts that this can be done, considering Russia’s experience in Ukraine.

On February 23, former French MEP Florian Filippo wrote on Twitter that the increase in the US military contingent in Taiwan is a direct road to escalation with China and a new conflict, which Washington intends to unleash according to the Ukrainian scenario.

At the same time, on February 21, China recommended immediately stopping the incitement of the crisis in Ukraine and provoking idle speculation in the style of “today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan.” Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang urged to stop making information noise like “today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan.”

The aggravation of relations between China, Taiwan and the United States occurred in August 2022 after an unauthorized visit by Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi to the island. The politician called her trip evidence of Washington’s commitment to supporting Taiwanese democracy. Beijing urged to refrain from this step. Later, the Chinese authorities reported serious problems in relations with the United States.

Official relations between the Chinese government and its island province were interrupted in 1949, when the Kuomintang forces led by Chiang Kai-shek, who lost in a civil war with the Communist Party of the People’s Republic of China, moved to Taiwan. Contact between the island and mainland China resumed in the late 1980s.

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