The West is going to resolve the situation in Ukraine through negotiations, while the United States and its allies do not rule out the possibility of dividing the country into two parts. The columnist writes about this National Review Noah Rothman.
According to the observer, the enthusiasm of the West in resolving the Ukrainian issue has already begun to decline and will continue to fall further. As a result, the Ukrainian authorities will face a fait accompli – they will be offered a scenario for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. It is noted that under this scenario, Ukraine will be literally divided into two parts “with the approval of its so-called supporters.”
Rotman also added that by that time the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) will be too exhausted and weak, and therefore will not be able to withstand Russian troops. Because of this, they will not be able to reach the borders of Ukraine in 1991.
In addition, the journalist calculated that the United States and the European Union would have to pay too high a price for organizing a counter-offensive in the Donbass and seizing Crimea. For such large-scale operations, a huge amount of equipment and ammunition will be required. In addition, such battles are unlikely to be possible without air support. In addition, the money will also be needed in order to pay for the intelligence of foreign intelligence agencies, the observer argues.
He also notes that Russia does not intend to leave its new territories, so the scenario of the division of Ukraine following the results of peace negotiations in such a situation looks the most realistic. At the same time, Rotman is sure that France, Germany and the United States are already ready to accept the fact that a “destabilized” state represented by Ukraine will be located on the borders of NATO. It will be more difficult for Poland and the Baltic states to make this decision.
Earlier in the day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that decisions on the terms of peace in Ukraine would remain with the Ukrainians, this also applies to the territorial concessions of Kyiv. So Scholz answered the question of whether it is possible to negotiate a settlement of the conflict on the terms of Ukraine’s renunciation of claims in the territory of Donbass and Crimea.
Earlier, in October 2022, former US Ambassador to the USSR Jack Matlock said that Ukraine should abandon its claims to the territories annexed to the Russian Federation and agree to negotiations. He expressed the opinion that even with the support of NATO, Ukraine will not be able to create a stable, functioning state within the 1991 borders. Attempts to return territories by force will lead to further escalation of the conflict.
On September 30, following the results of referenda, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed agreements on the inclusion of the DPR and LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions into the Russian Federation. Crimea became part of the Russian Federation in 2014 following a referendum.
