Helmut Norpoth, a political scientist, joined the Daily Caller’s Caity McDuffee to talk about his Primary Model that predicts President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election.
The model has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 of the last elections, including Trump’s win in 2016.
While the Primary Model leans heavily in favor of a Trump win, most polls have Former Vice President Joe Biden in the lead. A recent Real Clear Politics.
“In the end, it depends on the electoral college breakdown, and I give Donald Trump a sizable lead in the electoral college,” Norpoth said.
The model predicts President Trump will win 362 electoral votes, leaving Biden with 176.
Norpoth calculated his numbers through primaries and looks closely at stakes like New Hampshire, where Joe Biden placed in 5th.
“Joe Biden did terribly in New Hampshire, the first primary, which is not just the first but probably the most decisive of all the primaries in the whole cycle.”
Norpoth also discussed how polls in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania missed the mark in 2016.
“On the average, they all had Trump down by, I don’t know at least sort of, four points or more. If I see Trump down about, let’s say that much against Biden in this election, I’m not too worried about it.”
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