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How will Israel face Hezbollah’s attempts to change the rules of the game?

Hezbollah, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Hamas, Gaza, Israeli army

Oped

How will Israel face Hezbollah’s attempts to change the rules of the game?

The security apparatus in Israel erred when it believed that Hezbollah would not respond to its attacks in Lebanon, and despite the disciplined response by the Israeli army, Hezbollah, contrary to the assessment of the Israeli army, was quick to present a deterrence equation towards Israel, and it also seeks to restrict the freedom of action of the army. The Israeli side should respond to any future violations, and this requires Israel to study in depth whether there is a fundamental and deep change in the security situation on the northern border, because what the border is witnessing are not accidental events. There is a possibility that what happened was an attempt by Hezbollah and Iran to change the equations and respond to Israel’s actions in Syria, but the Israeli army knows very well today that if Hezbollah wanted to stop firing the missiles, it would be stopped easily.

In recent weeks, the picture has changed rapidly before the eyes of the Israelis, and it seems that the interest of those firing rockets from Lebanon, coinciding with the pace and urgency of events, indicates that there are those who do not want the state of calm to continue on the northern border. On the one hand, the Israeli army knows that something has changed, and Lebanon knows that as well, but it does not seem that the residents of the north have understood the change. Watching the rockets fall in Kiryat Shmona was worrying, and seeing people move indifferently at the moment the whistle sounds, according to the assessment of the military establishment. Israeli; The northern border received a reminder that what was not going to happen was the fifth rocket fire in three months, and an even sharper response from Israel.

Front line again

This is an indication that the northern border is once again a front line; After the party admitted firing the missiles, the Israeli air force bombed the empty hills west of the town of Khiam, while this attack did not target real targets, but rather wanted to suggest to the other party that something with us had changed as well. This is the first time that Israeli combat planes have attacked Lebanese territory. Since 2014, the intention was to convey a message that the Air Force will carry out real targets the next time, at a time when the previous four attempts to launch missiles were not initiated or encouraged by Hezbollah, and this event is not related to the changes taking place in Iran, and Hezbollah does not endorse the launch that The Palestinians in Lebanon do, but it also does not restrict them and does nothing to prevent them. Rather, he finds comfort in the fact that the northern borders remain an active arena of friction.

Hence, the Intelligence Division in the Israeli army must be obligated to do what it did not do in previous events, and to clarify the detailed identity of the shooters in order to receive detailed treatment. The price, the chilling pictures of the children of Dan settlement lying on the ground during the whistle blowing, was another reminder that we must hurry to address the northern home front, which has been neglected for many years. The treatment includes providing a large percentage of the new state budget, to start immunization work in the towns adjacent to Lebanon, but the reality requires a wider allocation of the defense budget, and an initial amount must be provided to improve the obstacle, which will allow to close the loopholes and begin to erect the obstacle next to the towns, which are easy to isolate in a ground offensive.

Hezbollah challenges the Israeli Prime Minister

Israeli politicians see Hezbollah’s actions as a serious challenge to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Hezbollah has already succeeded to a greater degree, when it dragged former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert into the war in 2006, and the circumstances this time are more complicated. Because things happen at the height of a very intense, even if generally secretive, regional battle between Israel and Iran.

The picture has changed before the eyes of the Israelis, and it seems that the interest of those firing rockets from Lebanon indicates that there are those who do not want the state of calm to continue on the northern border.

On the other hand, the military leadership in the Israeli army fears that rockets will be launched from Lebanon again, and the army will respond to them more broadly, and this increases tension with the Hezbollah, and the evidence for this is when the army responds to the rockets of the south and the continuous attacks with incendiary balloons, things do not go smoothly. , as long-range fire, but in the north, some shells fall and then things return to normal, and this means that Israel is in front of a really complicated situation; The security calm in Gaza is false. In practice, Hamas has strengthened its capabilities, as well as Hezbollah, which has appeared since the beginning of this year different from what it was before.

With the passage of time, the army that it built in Israel will grow in strength, and therefore, the situation in the south with Hamas will be a duplicate of it as well. Therefore, the continued firing of rockets from Lebanon at the Western Galilee, means that the party has crossed the red line, and this also gives a justification to go to war, and the army will rely on a target worthy of adventure, even if it is launching thousands of accurate missiles on a daily basis, which ultimately confirms that Israel is running a race Over time, although other defensive solutions may succeed in eliminating Hezbollah’s military capabilities, there is still a long way to go.

From a practical point of view, even if Israel manages to disrupt and delay the development of Hezbollah’s missile project, it is likely that its strong desire to push the project forward will increase, which will constitute a heavy dilemma at the Israeli political level in the coming years about how to address this threat, especially since this It is a violation of red lines in terms of the precise quantity and quality of the missiles, and it is not excluded that the Israeli military establishment in the coming months will increase its covert operational efforts against the party, but the dilemma is great, and it is not certain that the Israeli model of action inside Iran will be appropriate against the party in Lebanon.

Israel finds itself surrounded by failed states, Lebanon, Syria, Hamas, and to a greater extent the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, a phenomenon that is turning the entire region into an ever more explosive.

In the face of all these challenges, Israel is now facing another dilemma at the internal level, related to the Coronavirus crisis, and the government has not yet stood on its feet and is worried about the Iranian nuclear threat, and does not want to open another front with Hezbollah, especially after the information received by the Hezbollah that there is a cold in relations between the two parties. Russia and Israel, and Russia’s dissatisfaction with the attacks in Syria, and there are several special considerations that Israel reads in light of the difficult situation in Lebanon, and caution remains not to be drawn into a difficult confrontation in Lebanon, and we are witnessing days when the Israeli political security challenge is focused on a joint campaign with countries In the West against Iran, Israel does not have the ability to make the northern border a stable front line, as is the case in the south with Gaza, and there is a belief that Hezbollah is exploiting the political and economic crisis in Lebanon to show its strength, and a reminder that it is the true defender of the state, preventing any situation A new government is formed in Lebanon that does not comply with his wishes, and relations with any Western country that supports it is severed by considering the possibility of separating Hezbollah from power or demanding its disarmament, but even this interpretation faces a number of obstacles.

Najib Mikati is close to Hezbollah

Najib Mikati, who was appointed by President Michel Aoun to form the government, is very close to Hezbollah and does not intend or can form a government without Hezbollah representatives, and the party does not need to display another force to prove its military strength compared to the strength of the Lebanese army, in addition to that there is no Lebanon is now any official address to which Israel goes to hold it responsible, and its address to the Security Council will have no actual significance, except for condemnation, but Hezbollah is obligated every time to prove its commitment to the idea of ​​resistance, not only with speeches and statements, but also with actions. This is a message that is not limited to On the Lebanese arena only, it was sent to Hamas and the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and everyone whom Hezbollah deems loyal to the idea of ​​resistance.

The recent sequence of events indicates that a military confrontation has become closer than ever between Israel and Hezbollah, and according to the data known to the Israeli army, Hezbollah is trying to become the guide and advisor to a number of militias in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, and it wants to be freed from the restrictions imposed by Iran. they must conduct their war more independently, and this is what prompts them, in Hezbollah response against Israel, to test the new government in Israel and the new government in Iran, taking advantage of the recent cold state in relations between Russia and Israel, and Russia’s allusion to confronting the Israeli attacks on Syria.

Hezbollah operates according to Iran’s instructions

The assessments of the Israeli army commanders that Iran was behind the attack from Lebanon. Hezbollah acted according to the instructions of Iran, which decided to flex its muscles on every front shortly after Ibrahim Raisi’s inauguration, to make it clear that its policies remained the same, and that it separates the negotiations on the issue. The nuclear program, which has not yet resumed, and its ongoing military activities to defend its interests in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Disavowal and denial of missile launches could have halted the operation and ended the event.

However, there are some explanations about whether the deterrence equation between Israel and Hezbollah has been broken or not. There is an explanation based on the fact that the rocket fire stems from the ambition of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, to enhance his image and weak position and motivate Hezbollah’s response, but this explanation contradicts other analyzes. In the meantime, it says that Iran aspires to calm the region, and not to give the United States and Western countries an excuse to attack it militarily or impose new sanctions on it. Israel finds itself surrounded by failed states, Lebanon, Syria, the Hamas authority in Gaza, and to a greater extent the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, a phenomenon that turns the whole region into becoming more explosive, and more than that, all the arenas have links with each other, and the escalation of one of them may lead to a flare-up. in many areas.

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Rami Dabbas is a civil engineer by profession who works for Greater Amman Municipality in Jordan, Rami is the founder of Jordan’s Liberal Party in 2019 & a blogger.

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