Iranian regime in on knees and may not survive even a year, unless it succeeds in bring the United States into nuclear negotiation table. It has become crystal clear in the three years since the Trump administration pulled the US out of the nuclear agreement that nobody can completely shield Tehran from the US sanctions. Therefore, Tehran needs the US to come on board. In fact, Iran’s state-controlled Arman-e-Meli newspaper surprisingly acknowledged on Saturday: “No country, neither China nor Russia, will be able to save our economy. We must try to lift the sanctions. The way out of the internal pressures and the (bad) economic situation is to get rid of the issue of sanctions and it will be solved with the JCPOA”.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, since he came to power in August this year through a fake election has been attempting to increase the government’s leverage in the negotiations by rapidly advancing country’s nuclear program. One important point which needs to be understood by Joe Biden and his team is – Iranian regime is on its knees and for its existence it desperately needs to revive the nuclear deal. Tehran has recently asked the US to unblock US$10 billion to “restart the nuclear talks”. Based on a report released by the Financial Tribune, the Iranian regime’s budget deficit is “on course to reach 4,640 trillion rials (US$16.79 billion) in the 2021-22 fiscal year, while the government is also facing an unfunded deficit of roughly 30 percent, or 3,830 trillion rials”.
According to Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist, if Iran’s huge deficit continues, it will bring increasing inflation and contribute to the further devaluation of the currency. This will, in turn, add to popular frustration against the ruling clerics, which could trigger another nationwide uprising and threaten the theocratic establishment’s hold on power. This could lead to the fall of mullah regime in Iran and victory of the pro-democracy forces.
He said, “Raisi is aware of the imminent risks their regime faces. That is why he has formed a Cabinet full of members of the security apparatus – the notorious Quds Force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, offering another indication that the regime fears further uprising that the regime fears further uprisings. But the regime’s crises are so deep-rooted that the wisdom of such policies is highly questionable. The sheer force of the socioeconomic and political disasters created by the theocracy appear capable of inducing its downfall. Almost every sector of society is out in force with a growing list of demands and grievances that the regime cannot address”.
Dr. Rafizadeh said, the regime is increasingly concerned about its regional isolation and how the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East is tipping the balance of power against Tehran.
To overcome the current declining economy and possible mass upsurge, Iranian regime is desperately looking for having US back on the table of the nuclear deal, because, it will give Tehran global legitimacy and will reintegrate the country into the global financial system. Meaning, they want Joe Biden to give new life to the cruel mullah regime.
Iranian regime also is becoming increasingly nervous at a number of Muslim and Middle Eastern nations normalizing relations with the State of Israel and a clear indication of Saudi Arabia following the same footstep. Iranian newspaper Arman-e-Meli has recently stated, “We must take care of the security circles around the country. Recently, the Zionist regime has been trying to form a regional and international coalition against our country. These threats should not be ignored. It should not be taken lightly, but it can be very serious”.
The newspaper added: “A front is forming in the region … The prime minister of the Zionist regime has announced that the anti-Iranian alliance in the region will take a stronger shape. This front can be dangerous and a threat to us. Negotiations must begin peacefully”.
In this case, the United States should maintain its leverage in negotiations until Iran’s mullah regime fulfills all the demands required to prevent from obtaining nuclear weapons. At the same time, it is essential to force Iran abandon its terrorist activities and funding terrorism in the Middle East and beyond.
America and its European allies should not enter nuclear negotiations with the notorious Iranian regime from a position of weakness as the West has significant leverage over the theocratic establishment because Tehran is desperate for financial and sanctions relief. If the US and its European allies are genuinely looking for victory of democratic forces in Iran, it must not grant new life to the mullah regime in Iran by unblocking billions of dollars or lifting sanctions.
