Since HIMARS is a stronger system than the Russian MLRS, which is being used in the operation, the package would be a way to enable Ukrainian forces to prevent further Russian victories. Writes Lucas Leiroz
Recently, the US government has repeatedly pledged not to send long-range weapons to Kiev, demonstrating a realistic stance on how to deal with the Ukrainian conflict. However, on the first day of June a new million dollars-package was announced, which included weapons of sufficient range to reach the territory of the Russian Federation. Despite Washington promising that its ally will not use the weapons against targets in Russian sovereign space, there are no real guarantees that such a condition will be met, which significantly increases the risks of escalation in the coming days.
The Ukrainian government has been urging its American partners to provide long-range weapons. Kiev’s authorities claim that in this way it would be possible to increase the power of the “resistance” and carry out the fighting, precisely at the current moment, when the Russian military advantage already seems undeniable and is beginning to be admitted by the Ukrainian forces themselves and the Western media.
In response, Joe Biden vetoed the shipment of the material, maintaining a realistic limit on what can and cannot be provided to Kiev. The reason is simple to understand: such weapons have a range capable of reaching Russian territory, which would cause an escalation of the conflict that the US is not willing to deal with. The US government’s priority remains to be saving NATO members from the possible effects of the conflict, which is why the country has refused to engage in level of cooperation with Kiev that could lead to Russian reprisals. In the midst of the dispute in American political society between realists and warmongers, the first group had apparently won this debate and was in line with the president’s position on this issue.
However, on June 1, Biden announced a new aid package for Ukraine, valued at more than 700 million dollars, contradicting his earlier words. This new package includes the multiple-launch rocket HIMARS system, that can carry longer range missiles.
“Today, I am announcing a significant new security assistance package to provide timely and critical aid to the Ukrainian military (…) This new package will arm them with new capabilities and advanced weaponry, including HIMARS with battlefield munitions, to defend their territory from Russian advances”, Biden said.
Endorsing the president’s words and justifying the reasons why the US took such a decision, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the Pentagon currently considers the Ukrainian conflict an “artillery duel”.
Since HIMARS is a stronger system than the Russian MLRS, which is being used in the operation, the package would be a way to enable Ukrainian forces to prevent further Russian victories.
Some American analysts claim in Biden’s defense that the HIMARS are medium-range weapons, but, in fact, there is not a very clear limit on what a medium or long-range weapon would be. What matters, in practice, is the material effect of each of equipment. The range of HIMARS is 133.5 to 300 kilometers. Depending on where the weapons are deployed, this could be enough to hit Russian territories in the border zone, which is why Russia correctly considers the situation as a real threat to its national security.
The US government has promised that Kiev will not use the system against targets on Russian territory, but no details have been informed on how this type of control is planned. Certainly, there is not even any monitoring mechanism being prepared, which is why the Russian authorities do not trust this speech and consider the use of HIMARS a “direct provocation”, in Lavrov’s words.
In response, Russia has started drills with its Yars systems, demonstrating that it will not tolerate any sign of the use of heavy weapons against its territory. It is necessary to mention that there have already been Ukrainian attacks against the Russian sovereign space at other times over the last three months, including in non-military regions, where civilians were victimized. In case of repetition, the results of this type of action would be catastrophic, given the firepower of the missiles received by Ukraine – which is why Moscow is resolute in its position of zero tolerance for further incursions.
Given this scenario, it is interesting to analyze how Biden easily cedes to the pressure of the warmongers and the American arms industry. The US government contradicts itself when it agrees to send heavy, long-range weapons to Kiev, reversing all previously self-imposed limits. The way is being opened for the total absence of limits in the conflict, which will not result in a scenario other than escalation.
Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant. You can follow Lucas on Twitter.
