In situations of crisis and instability, radical ideologies tend to become stronger. Writes Lucas Leiroz
The current Ukrainian crisis could lead to a significant increase in extremism in Germany. In a recent interview, a leading German official expressed concerns about the rise of radical views as a result of the country’s gas crisis. In fact, as long as there are sanctions against Russia, the European energy situation will be unstable and will generate serious social risks.
The Minister-President of the German state of Bavaria Markus Soder was interviewed by the Bild am Sonntag newspaper on 16 October. On the occasion, Soder warned about the worrying situation in Germany today, which accumulates the negative effects of two major crises – the pandemic and current gas instability. According to him, this scenario tends to expand the risks of extremism. Soder also states that the solution to prevent the advance of radicalism would be to strengthen the posture of democratic parties, which should make their positions clearer and act more incisively in defense of democracy.
“Fear and uncertainty are the fuel for extremists. And before the coming winter, people are experiencing such uncertainty as they have not experienced for a long time. The mix of crises, such as energy and coronavirus, can lead to overstrain and destabilization of democracy. Therefore, democratic parties should take a clear position, argue less and encourage citizens”, Soder said during the interview.
At another moment of the interview, Soder also provided technical advice on how to overcome the energy crisis and its political consequences. The minister suggested that internal disputes between government sectors be immediately stopped. For Soder, there must be a greater commitment on the part of German politicians to protect democracy and defeat the existing social problems, which is why domestic frictions should be avoided.
He also demanded that Olaf Scholz begin to act more enthusiastically to win these challenges, including by extending the production capacity of nuclear plants until 2024, in addition to implementing public policies for an immediate reduction in energy prices. For this to happen, Soder said that it is necessary to mediate the conflict between Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who have different plans on how to solve the crisis.
Among many other disagreements and a clear dispute to assume a leading role in the German government, the ministers also fail to reach an accord regarding the nuclear program. Habeck believes that two nuclear plants are enough to solve the German crisis and wants to have them fully operational by March 2023. Lindner, on the other hand, argues that three plants would be necessary and plans to complete production targets by 2024. The differences between the two have caused many complications in the pro-government coalition. Soder believes that these conflicts are harmful and fuel the rise of ideological fanaticisms as well as prevent government’s policies from advancing, which is why he encourages Scholz to resolve the situation as quickly as possible.
In August, Stephan Kramer, chairman of the Thuringian Office for the Protection of the Constitution, had already warned about the rise of extremism in Germany. According to Kramer, the crisis is about to generate a “winter of fury”, with violent protests organized by militant groups to demand changes in the energy situation. At the time, Kramer also emphasized the risks of rising unemployment in the winter season, as gas becomes even more scarce and expensive.
As we can see, the possible rise of immoderate positions has become a frequent concern in the speeches of German officials. In fact, this is a correct analysis and one that should be a topic of discussion throughout Western society. Fascist groups tend to grow precisely at times when crises indicate failure on the part of democratic institutions to solve social problems. So, in fact actions must be taken in order to control the situation.
However, apparently, German officials are refusing to understand the evident reality that the solution to the European problem does not lie in institutional changes or long-term planning, but in incisive action in foreign policy. What Germany, as well as the rest of Western Europe, needs is to stop adhering to suicidal sanctions and immediately resume pragmatic diplomacy with Russia. Only this attitude will prevent Berlin from going down a path of crisis, self-destruction and extremism.
Even if European countries begin energy development policies to overcome their dependence on Russian gas and oil, these projects will certainly not be completed in time to prevent social problems from arising, including extremism. Therefore, the path seems simple and clear: sanctions must be lifted.
Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
