Future of ongoing protests in Iran

As protests are continuing in Iran now for months, a section of Western policymakers is seeing an imminent collapse of the Islamist regime, although some analysts are unwilling to accept such prophecies.

While it is aspired by many in the world, including pro-democracy Iranians about imminent collapse of the Islamist regime, replying to a question about the possibility of the protestors succeeding in ousting the Ayatollahs from power, Dr. Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi, India in an exclusive interview said: “I don’t really see that as a proximate possibility. You see these are enormously violent, enormously repressive regimes and repression works, for whatever people may you know the idealist may say no revolutions are possible etcetera. Revolutions are possible only when regimes are deeply degraded. The Iran regime is not degraded in that sense. It is continuing to substantially hold its administration and its forces. Yes, there have been very sustained protests no doubt. But we’ve had similar and very sustained protests over months and in in other theaters in the Middle East, and almost every one of them has been suppressed or completely eliminated from, you know the political scenario. I do not think. In fact, Iran is far more stable than many of those regimes were working in you had the situation in Egypt was there situation in several other theaters was there. Algeria was something of a success. But I think broadly the protests in Iran are not going to get the scale that is necessary and as you have seen repressive measures have intensified. They have now also announced the death penalty for participants in these protests so gradually. I do not believe that this would be a very successful thing and those who are encouraging these protests from the outside are doing what the West has always done and what the West is also doing in other theaters at this juncture which is allowing locals to be killed to serve their own whatever model geostrategic ends they may have”.

In my opinion, Iranian protests are not getting due coverage in the international media the way Ukraine war has been almost dominating most of the media outlets in the West and other parts of the world. If we search Google, for example, we can find a very limited volume of contents related to the ongoing protests in Iran. It is far lesser than the media coverage about Ukraine and some other global issues. On social media platforms, contents related to ongoing protests in Iran is also very few.

Another important factor here is – Iranian protestors are not getting real support from the Biden administration and other key-policymakers in the West. Instead, Biden is focusing on maintaining its communications with Iran even by granting it financial perks by unfreezing hundreds of millions of dollars of Iranian cash. Meanwhile, Iran can generate huge amount of cash by selling its natural and mineral resources, including petroleum products to several countries, which have no problem in continuing economic relations with Tehran.

We need to remember, the current protest in Iran is not a mass-revolt as perceived by some people. Instead, this protest began centering the case of Mahsa Amini, a woman who was killed by Iran’s Sharia Police for not wearing hijab. If we look into anti-Iran protests throughout the world – everywhere they are using Mahsa Amini as a poster-girl in condemning Iranian regime for violating rights of women by enforcing hijab and may be burqa. They are hardly talking about suppression of freedom of expression and freedom of press, while they also are failing in exposing high-profile corruption of the ruling elites.

A key factor about the ongoing protests in Iran is – although Iranian protestors are succeeding in continuing protests for month, they really do not have the leadership who can substitute the current Islamist regime. Exiled Iranians are portraying Maryam Rajavi as their future leader of Iran. But in my opinion, Maryam Rajavi lacks charisma that a leader requires to lead a great country like Iran. From her attire, Rajavi is purely an Islamist while may be opposing the current Islamist regime in Tehran – but if she becomes the next leader of Iran, we can hardly see any difference. Maryam Rajavi has never condemned Iranian regime’s threats on the US, Israel, West and the Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia. She even has miserably failed to interact with the members of international media.

In my opinion, Maryam Rajavi is a pure housewife, who has been put at the forefront of a movement against the Islamist regime in Tehran. But she definitely lacks qualities to be the head of the government in Iran.

On the other hand, Iranians also are refusing to accept members of Pahlavi family to become the future leader of Iran. So, this is an area that Iranians first need to address, if they want to achieve final victory. Otherwise, Iran will continue to be ruled by radical Islamic clergies for a very long time.

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  1. Shallow analysis on the situation in Iran. Also very superficial on the Resistance movement and on Mrs. Rajavi. With all due respect, the author lacks the minimum insight on a topic he’d better leave alone. This is the first requirement for a sound reporting.

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