The US is likely to cede its primacy in space to China by 2045, the authors conclude. However, given how fast China’s space industry is growing, this might happen much sooner. Writes Drago Bosnic
In 2019, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg identified space as the “next operational domain.” This highly controversial move was followed by the formation of the US Space Force, one of the eight US uniformed services. By doing so, the political West effectively started the process of militarization of space, which will end up deconstructing decades of efforts to keep space out of geopolitical rivalry. Even during the heydays of the (First) Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union managed to keep space out of their conflicts. In the 1970s and 1980s, while both superpowers were building tens of thousands of thermonuclear weapons, their respective space agencies were engaged in close cooperation, helping shape the bristling technological leap which created the modern world we live in nowadays.
By pushing for the militarization of space, the political West is effectively destroying well over half a century of international cooperation in space. Both Russia and China responded to this belligerence by enhancing their own space warfare capabilities, with Russia launching secretive satellites to space and building ground-based lasers with the capability to blind NATO space-based ISR (intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance) systems. For its part, China went on to test its pilotless spaceplane, making it the third country in history with such a capability, right after the US and USSR/Russia. And yet, both Russia and China are working on expanding their space capabilities for peaceful purposes. According to recent reports, China is even slowly outpacing the US in space exploration.
While the US still might have an advantage, especially in the light of the upcoming launch of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, designed to reach the Moon and the successes of the James Webb Space Telescope, according to space industry experts, the US is extremely likely to hit multiple snags in the development of its space capabilities. On the other hand, many experts believe that China is bound to overtake the US in this field in the next 10-20 years. According to Defense One reports, a new analysis conducted by experts from the Space Force, Air Force, Defense Innovation Unit, and other relevant institutions have concluded that, when it comes to the long-term competition in space, Beijing is likely to beat the US.
According to the analysis, “there is China’s militarization of space activities. The country’s space program has mastered the ability to rendezvous one satellite with another in orbit, allowing for close-up kills, either by destroying an enemy satellite with a projectile or blinding its optics with lasers. It is also developing jamming and other cyber capabilities.” Naturally, such claims, even if true, are ignoring the very fact that it was the political West, particularly the US, which started militarizing space, especially with the completely nontransparent usage of space assets such as the X-37B, a pilotless spaceplane which various US military branches (first the US Air Force and then the US Space Force) have been operating for nearly two decades. The very fact that the US Department of Defense is in control of the spaceplane’s operations should be enough to raise concerns, to say nothing of the veil of secrecy surrounding the spacecraft.
China’s response to US actions has been quiet, yet decisive. However, despite the need to respond to US bellicosity, China continues pursuing the development of its nonmilitary space capabilities. Still, US analysts are “concerned” about Beijing’s space station goals. At present, China is building a three-module station in LEO (Low Earth Orbit). While the outpost is comparatively small when paired with the massive 16-module ISS (International Space Station), China is undertaking this effort alone and its plans to establish a permanent space station presence are going as intended. Meanwhile, the aging ISS is scheduled to be de-orbited no later than 2030, although this is likely to happen sooner, as Russia, an indispensable partner in the project, is disillusioned by the political West’s belligerent actions, and wants to terminate cooperation in the near future.
Finally, the authors of the report “worry about American politics.” Over the past 18 years, US goals for crewed exploration of deep space have changed repeatedly, the authors claim, with the Moon or an asteroid or Mars or some combination of those destinations on the itinerary depending on who was sitting in the Oval Office. On the other hand, Beijing has been much more decisive in choosing a destination and sticking to the plan. At present, China is looking to have taikonauts (Chinese for cosmonauts) on the Moon by 2030, with no delay or deviation from those plans foreseen thus far. Without such a “North Star vision,” as the authors of the report put it, the US is likely to cede its primacy in space to China by 2045, they conclude. However, given how fast China’s space industry is growing, this might happen much sooner.
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.
