While freedom of expression has already seemed to be buried in the United States, democracy and election now seems to have turned mysterious as the Democratic Party and its loyalist administration and media cartel are making orchestrated bids in gross manipulation of the election with the target of stopping Republicans from gaining majority in the Congress and Senate.
We need to remember, this November’s midterm election is taking place at a very crucial time for the Democrats, as President Biden is extremely unpopular with historic low approval ratings, voters say America is in a recession, while Democratic majorities are razor-thin, and midterms favor the opposition party. The issue set—inflation, border security, crime, and the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan—is well-suited for Republican candidates. Many Democrats are retiring. GOP voters are enthusiastic.
Yet Democrats are increasingly bullish about their electoral prospects. They have closed the gap with Republicans on the congressional generic ballot and lead the GOP for the first time this year. They are even or tied with Republicans in (admittedly spotty) polling averages of seven marquee Senate races. Since June 24, when the Supreme Court overruled Roe v Wade and restored abortion law to the political sphere, Democrats have outperformed their expected margins in special elections. The reversal of Roe has mobilized an important Democratic constituency: voters, especially women, with high levels of educational attainment. On August 2, Kansans dealt pro-life forces a setback by defeating a referendum that would have forbidden state judges from reading abortion rights into the state constitution. On August 23, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a closely watched congressional special election in New York. Ryan staked his campaign on preserving abortion rights. Molinaro focused on inflation. Voters had a clear-cut choice between the two parties’ messages. Abortion won.
Suddenly, the political class is revising its expectations for the fall. “Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple”, says the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
“Democrats sense a shift in the winds, but it may not be enough”, says the New York Times.
“Democrats’ Outlook for Midterm Elections Brightens After New York Win”, says the Wall Street Journal. The Journal‘s op-ed page says the GOP has an abortion problem.
The Democrats are free to define the landscape and press the attack that Republicans will take away women’s rights. It’s a replay of past Democratic accusations that the GOP will cut entitlements such as Medicare or Social Security—except this entitlement is sexual, personal, and not a question of dollars and cents. This summer, Democrats have spent tens of millions of dollars on pro-choice television ads targeting Republicans. Why? Because it works.
There may be more behind the changing dynamics of this election than falling gas prices and abortion rights. Typically, midterm results depend on a president’s approval rating. If that were the case this year, Democrats would be running behind expectations. As it stands, Democrats are running ahead of Biden’s approval rating in the congressional generic ballot, in Senate polling, and in special elections. Voters are not translating their disapproval of Biden into disgust with Democrats in general. They are not factoring Biden into their down-ballot calculations. They have tuned him out.
