Western sanctions on Russia so far has brought only nightmare and unimaginable sufferings to their own natives, while such sanctions have no real impact on Russia or on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, on December 7, 2022, on December December 7, the European Commission proposed a new sanctions package to coerce Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine. After the previous eight sanctions packages, the costs of the sanctions regime for Europe are mounting. With winter approaching and temperatures dropping, and as a direct consequence of severing trade with Russia, Europe is preparing for electricity outages, a lack of lighting and heat, and temporary cuts in internet and mobile service. Yet the war continues, with Russia escalating to a campaign of missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Indeed, it is the collective nature of the sanctions—the process of their development and implementation—that allows Russia to circumvent the worst of the intended economic pain. Each member of the sanctioning coalition is incentivized to decrease the individual burden felt from severing economic relations with Russia. This not only reduces the effectiveness of the ultimate compromise, but also provides Russia with lead time to adjust to future sanctions and incentivizes Western firms to increase trade with Russia before sanctions are imposed.
Commenting on Western sanctions on Russia, Mariya Grinberg, an Assistant Professor of Political Science and a member of the Security Studies Program at MIT in an article wrote:
Sanctions are the wrong tool to solve the strategic problem facing the West. The West wants Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine, which Russia sees as closely tied to its national security. To change the foreign policy of a state on something of such great stakes, the leverage employed has to be equally sizable. Currently, the process of designing multilateral sanctions—with participating states seeking to decrease individual costs, a long negotiation process, and compromises required—gives Russia time to adjust to future economic pressure and provides Western firms with counterproductive incentives to trade more with Russia before sanctions start. The resulting leverage of the sanctions is insufficient to meaningfully affect Russia’s decisions.
Changing the nature of the negotiations over sanctions is not possible. Every state of the multilateral coalition has to agree on the final sanctions package. Garnering such an agreement requires time and exceptions for states that would not agree to the sanctions package otherwise.
The other way to increase the sanctions’ leverage is to ensure that Russia can’t adjust to the effects of the sanctions package before it is enforced. This requires getting India and China, as well as other smaller yet key economies, on board with the sanctions regime. To tempt India, at the very least, the West would need to offer oil at a cheaper rate than Russia. Of course, this would be no guarantee of Indian participation; the expected outcome would merely level the playing field with Russia. It is hard to imagine what could get China to agree on a sanctions package against Russia. It is even harder to imagine the West being willing to pay that price. Yet, as long as Russia has viable alternative markets for its key exports and alternative trade partners willing to sell it necessary products, sanctions will not be able to apply sufficient pressure to change Russia’s policy in Ukraine.
To facilitate an end to the war in Ukraine, the West will need to look to alternative tools. At this juncture, diplomacy is the tool most likely to succeed. As Russia has nuclear weapons, even a decisive military victory by Ukraine that pushed Russian troops beyond the border is not a guarantee of war termination. Russia can continue shelling Ukrainian infrastructure from its territory. Moreover, a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory would carry significant risks of nuclear retaliation.
Ultimately, Russia will decide when the war will end, making diplomacy necessary. A consideration of Russia’s security interests in Europe, rooted in an end to NATO expansion, will likely be needed to negotiate a settlement.
While a large number of Western pundits are suggesting a “better-designed sanctions or more comprehensive sanctions” on Russia seeking the full economic isolation, in my opinion, such measures would end up with a much higher cost to the sanctioning nations instead of any real benefit or solution. Sanctions will only prolong the war in Ukraine and sufferings of people, although it would greatly benefit Volodymyr Zelensky and ruling elites in Ukraine, including members of the neo-Nazi forces. Seeing arrogance of Joe Biden in pushing further the Ukraine war by injecting billions of dollars, no one should expect any peace in Ukraine until Biden is elected out of office in 2024. Most importantly, the war in Ukraine is in no way benefitting the American people, although their tax-dollars are being madly spent in further boosting the war. Ukraine was can never be won by the US or its Western allies. It will ultimately end up in a messy way – much worse than how it had happened in Afghanistan. If Joe Biden and his Western allies want to put Russian President Vladimir Putin into severe pressure, there should be immediately deployment of at least 100,000 American and NATO troops in Ukraine with the plan of expanding the war deep inside Russian soil. This is the only option, if Joe Biden wants to prove America’s supremacy over any other country in the world and restore super-power status of the country. Otherwise, America and its NATO allies will ultimately turn into mere paper-tiger.
