Former chancellor Angela Merkel is on a campaign to preserve her legacy as Germany’s economy struggles. Writes Ahmed Adel
Angela Merkel has replaced her conspicuous months-long silence on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by making numerous statements in recent weeks, even noting that “Putin should be taken seriously” and that she does not regret her energy policy towards Russia. The former head of the German government is unlikely to directly mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict or attempt to return as chancellor, which she left after 16 years in 2021. However, she still does wield a lot of public influence.
Merkel has been experiencing fierce criticism in Germany because she said that a completely different kind of contact must be made with Russia. For this reason, she spoke about a pan-European security architecture, which implies a relationship that does not exclude Russia since there cannot be security in Europe without Russia.
Critics of Merkel argue that her energy policy was wrong despite the fact it provided Germany with prosperity. They also criticise her relations with Beijing even though the extensive Chinese market provides great privileges to the German economy.
Merkel’s recent statements should be viewed in the context of preserving her legacy. Many believe that the war in Ukraine would not have happened if she had remained chancellor, however this is unlikely as Washington, and not Brussels, is the main powerbroker in Kiev.
The former German chancellor is effectively powerless to do anything to try and alleviate the conflict in Ukraine. Although she was behind the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements, those peace initiatives were sabotaged by the Americans.
It is also recalled that Merkel prevented Ukraine from joining NATO in 2008, even though the Americans strongly insisted on it. She warned then that Ukraine’s entry into NATO would be a prelude to war, and she still stands by that decision today because it turned out that Ukraine’s approach to NATO was a red line that the Russians could not accept.
She also defended Nord Stream 2 until the end of her chancellorship and her last visit to the White House prevented the introduction of sanctions. The former chancellor then saved Nord Stream 2 by strongly resisting Washington’s pressure, but Olaf Scholz closed it after coming to power.
All American administrations, from Obama to Trump and Biden, have exerted strong pressure on Germany, but Merkel withstood it all. Now Scholz has capitulated to most pressure and Germany is the biggest victim of the anti-Russia sanctions.
In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund said that key European economies will fall into “technical recession” next year, including Germany. The report comes as the German government slashed its growth forecast for this year and predicts the economy will shrink in 2023.
DW reported that the economy ministry expects Germany’s gross domestic product to grow by 1.4% this year and then decline by 0.4% next year, a far cry from its estimates in late April when it had forecast 2.2% growth in 2022 and 2.5% next year.
Robert Habeck, the German vice-chancellor and economy minister, said the “substantial economic downturn” would be “concentrated in the third and fourth quarters of this year and the first quarter of 2023”.
A combination of soaring prices, shortages of energy and supply chain bottlenecks are predicted to cause the German gross domestic product to contract in the next three quarters. A rebound is not expected until 2024, with growth estimated at 2.4 per cent.
Sanctions against Russia and the associated issues of gas supply has plunged Germany into its worst energy crisis since the second world war. Many companies have reduced production or even shut down due to soaring gas prices. This is the exact scenario that Merkel wanted to avoid, hence why she supported peace in Donbass.
The economic impact that disrupted energy will have on Germany depends on several factors, such as the volume of the disruption, duration and the winter’s severity. Given the volumes imported from Russia, Germany will be one of the hardest-hit economies in the EU if there is a complete Russian gas shutoff, something that could happen if the EU insists on a price cap. This will severely weaken a Germany that had become economically dominant under Merkel’s leadership as she helped maintain a volatile peace in Ukraine and took advantage of Russian gas at favorable prices.
It is for this reason that she is now speaking about the Ukraine crisis after many months of silence, effectively a defense of her legacy.
