The New York Times appeared to temper Democrat expectations for the midterm elections in a September 12, 2022 analysis.
In its newsletter, “The Morning”, The Times suggested that recent polling indicating Democrats are making gains with voters may be wrong again, based on an analysis of final polling in 2020 that overstated President Joe Biden’s strength in a number of places including states like North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio, where key Senate races will be decided.
Times’ senior writer David Leonhardt noted:
The polls reported that Biden had a small lead in North Carolina, but he lost the state to Donald Trump. The polls also showed Biden running comfortably ahead in Wisconsin, yet he won it by less than a percentage point. In Ohio, the polls pointed to a tight race; instead, Trump won it easily.
In each of these states — and some others — pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters. One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey. If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem.
This possibility offers reason to wonder whether Democrats are really doing as well in the midterm elections as the conventional wisdom holds. Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly, while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
“One factor seems to be that Republican voters are more skeptical of mainstream institutions and are less willing to respond to a survey,” he added Monday. “If that’s true, polls will often understate Republican support, until pollsters figure out how to fix the problem”.
Nate Cohn, the paper’s chief political analyst, added: “Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from the expectations set by historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating.
“The arguments are often pretty plausible. After all, every cycle is different. There’s almost always something unprecedented about a given election year. There’s always a way to spin up a rationale for why old rules won’t apply,” he added.
“In the end, history usually prevails. That’s a good thing to keep in mind right now as Democrats show strength that seems entirely at odds with the long history of the struggles of the president’s party in midterm elections,” he told Leonhardt. “But this cycle, there really is something different — or at the very least, there is something different about the reasons ‘this cycle might be different’”.
At this writing, RealClearPolitics estimates that Republicans, so far, are set to pick up two seats while winning back control of the House — though on the “generic ballot”, Democrats seem to hold a slight 0.4 percent advantage, which is well within polling margins of error.
President Joe Biden, according to RCP’s average of polls, has a 42 percent approval rating compared to a 52.8 percent unfavorable rating. Vice President Kamala Harris’ favorable is worse – 36.3 percent to 51.2 percent unfavorable.
Former President Donald Trump, according to the RCP averages, is at 40.7 percent favorable versus 54.0 percent unfavorable. And while he is not on the ballot, several candidates he has thrown his support behind are.
Still, Biden’s polling has been severely underwater most of the year as gasoline prices soared to record levels along with the cost of food and building materials. In addition, the country suffered through shortages of baby formula and other products, leading some Democratic analysts to predict a blowout for Republicans this fall.
Also, a survey released last week found that most Americans want Biden impeached.
The Rasmussen Reports survey showed that by a margin of 52-42 percent, most likely voters support impeachment. The numbers included 77 percent of Republicans, 50 percent of independents, and 32 percent of Democrats, The Washington Examiner reported.
However, a smaller majority believes Republicans are actually going to impeach the president, with 47 percent saying the party will do so compared to 43 percent who don’t think it’ll happen.
